Time to Ride the Orange Wave

Who said this election was boring? The political map in Canada is about to see the most radical changes in my life time. I’ve been a life-long NDP supporter, especially with Jack Layton at the helm, but I never thought I’d see an NDP surge wash across the country.

Multiple polls are showing the NDP surpassing the Liberals for 2nd place nationwide. More surprising, they’ve surpassed the Bloc in Quebec. The Bloc has been a dominant force in Quebec since 1993 – always winning at least 50% of the seats. But its bleeding votes to the NDP. Could this be the end of the separatist movement? A death at the hands of the NDP? To start to contemplate what the NDP’s rise in Quebec means, read this Pundits Guide article.

And it’s not just Bloc supporters that are moving to the NDP. The NDP is taking votes from the Conservatives in the Prairies, the Liberals in BC, everyone in Atlantic Canada, and the Greens all over the country. The NDP are the preferred 2nd choice of supporters from every party, including the Conservatives. And even with the recent surge in support, the NDP has the most room to grow. Check out these numbers from the most recent Ekos poll – 24.7% choose the NDP as their first choice, and 25% as their second.

Voters 1st and 2nd Choice
Source Ekos poll April 21, 2011 (pdf)

I’m sure more than a few progressives are concerned about vote splitting, now that the NDP and Liberals are essentially tied nationally. However, the NDP rise is eating more into the Conservative and Bloc seat totals then the Liberals. This projection has the NDP at 60 seats, the Liberals up to 82, with the Conservatives and Bloc both losing seats, down to 134 and 32.

Exciting stuff. Get out and vote! Together we can!


  1. IMO Ignatieff shot himself in the foot when he said there are ONLY two options.
    One thing I love about Canadians politics (vs. American) is our multiple party system.

    I’ve always been open to ALL parties, however for myself this time around, I’m furious and fed-up with the Conservatives to the point my blood pressure skyrockets when I watch them speak on TV.
    Unlike many in Canada, Ignatieff doesn’t bother me and I don’t care that he lived in another country, however I have found an annoying arrogance from some in the Liberal party.

    Out of the four parties (Green, not Bloc), NDP would be the only one I haven’t voted for in the past.
    I would have considered voting for them (NDP) this election, however our NDP candidate in St. Catharines will more then likely finish in 4th behind the Green party. VERY inexperienced and doesn’t handle himself well while debating plus we have a history of electing either a Conservative or Liberal, though from what I hear/see the Conservative will walk away with it this time.

    I would love to see the Liberals & NDP get enough seats throughout Canada to form a coalition with one another.
    Of course I have little issue with forming a coalition with the Bloc also.
    I can’t figure out why Canadians are opposed to coalitions when they’ve been working in other counties for years.


    • I know how you feel. Because I’m moving this weekend, I could vote in either my old riding or my new riding. I chose to vote in my old riding, even thought it will be landslide NDP victory, because the candidate is much stronger. I couldn’t bring myself to vote in the new riding, where the NDP will finish 3rd or 4th, and are running a weak candidate.

      With the current voting system, the main parties need to field 1307 good candidates, even though only 308 will win. That’s never going to happen, because there will be too many ‘unwinnable’ ridings for each party . What’s a voter to do if they like the party, but the local candidate sucks? If we had a multi-riding single-transferable-vote system (like BC-STV, it would be easier for voters to pick strong candidates, and it would also get rid of strategic voting.

      The coalition issue has pissed me off since the beginning of the campaign. The Conservatives have managed to convince the public that it is ‘undemocratic’, and the media and opposition parties have played along. Why won’t anyone call them on this ‘bullshit’?


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